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Top 30 Prospects: #2 Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty will be a good MLB pitcher soon enough

In collaboration with Kyle Reis and Birds On The Black, I’m proud to present you with the Cardinals Top 30 Prospects! Every other day over the next day two months, we’ll be providing you with another in-depth scouting report on one of the best 30 prospects in the organization. Today, we have #2, Jack Flaherty

2. Jack Flaherty – RHP

1st Round – 2014 Draft
Entering age-22 season
AA FIP: 2.29; AAA FIP: 4.10

Standard Pitching
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2017 21 STL-min AAA,AA 14 4 .778 2.18 25 25 0 0 0 0 148.2 120 36 36 12 35 2 147 0 0 5 581 1.043 7.3 0.7 2.1 8.9 4.20 MEM,SPD PCL,TL
2017 21 STL NL 0 2 .000 6.33 6 5 0 0 0 0 21.1 23 15 15 4 10 1 20 1 0 0 94 68 5.27 1.547 9.7 1.7 4.2 8.4 2.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/28/2018.

What I Like

What separates Jack Flaherty from every other pitcher on this list is the depth of his repertoire. Think about some of the better pitchers in the system. Hicks is a fastball-curveball guy. Hudson is best known for his slider and mid to upper 90’s fastball. Flaherty, on the other hand, threw five different pitches while in the majors last year: fastball, sinker, curve, slider, and a changeup.

While his repertoire is deep, his slider is among the games best according to Joe Schwarz of The Athletic and Birds on the Black. Joe isn’t the only one, either. Eno Sarris, formerly of Fangraphs and now of The Athletic, pointed out the similarities between Flaherty’s slider and Clayton Kershaw’s. In terms of whiff rate, they’re absolutely right: hitters swung and missed at 28.7% of the sliders Flaherty threw last year.

While in Springfield, Flaherty was as in control as a pitcher could possibly be. In 63 innings he had a 1.42 ERA and stuck out 25.6 percent of the hitters he faced. At the start of the season, he shared a rotation with Sandy Alcantara, Austin Gomber, and the aforementioned Hudson. Last April, in my opinion, Flaherty was the least exciting of the four. He proved me wrong when, in the first Springfield game I attended, he went 7 2/3 shutout innings while striking out nine.

My scorecard from the night shows how dominant he was and precisely how few baserunners he allowed. (Notice Max Schrock batting seventh and playing second base. He actually hit one of the harder balls off Flaherty when he lined out to left in the 5th.)

His final strikeout, which came against Paz, was classic Flaherty. He used his slider and breaking ball to get ahead, and attacked with his fastball with two strikes until, eventually, he got one by the hitter. His velocity, which at one time was only projected, became reality last season and is why he’s made an enormous jump up lists this year.

What I Don’t Like

There’s little that I don’t like about Flaherty. Most of it has to do with his struggles in five starts covering 21 1/3 innings in the majors last year. To briefly recap, he had a 6.33 ERA and walked over 10 percent of the hitters he faced while his strikeout rate dipped from his minor league norm. Remember, though, that Luke Weaver really struggled in 2016 before being dominant for a stretch last year.

What separates Flaherty from where Weaver is now is fastball command. Go back and watch the video of the at-bat against Paz. Flaherty gets ahead 1-2 and throws a fastball down the middle, but it’s fouled back. In the majors, those pitches aren’t fouled off. They get hit, and hard. After his promotion to St. Louis, opponents hit .333 with a .455 slugging percentage against his four-seam fastball, and .400 with a .700 slugging percentage against the sinker.

Flaherty’s stuff is undeniable, but he has to be more precise with where he puts his fastball. After all, opponents hit .250 or below against his slider or curve. That’s a really good place to start, and if he pairs that with a more effective fastball, especially one that can get easy outs early in counts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he holds on to a rotation spot all season long.

Thanks for reading! Tomorrow is Opening Day and we’re revealing the number one prospect on the list (I bet you can’t guess who it is). Thanks to Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Brooks Baseball for the content they contributed, and don’t forget to check out Kyle’s reports at Birds on the Black.

Colin Garner
@colingarner22

GET CAUGHT UP!

3. Carson Kelly
4. Tyler O’Neill

5. Andrew Knizner

6. Harrison Bader

7. Jordan Hicks

8. Dakota Hudson

9. Austin Gomber
10. Ryan Helsley
11. Randy Arozarena
12. Adolis Garcia
13. Oscar Mercado
14. Delvin Perez
15. Jake Woodford
16. Junior Fernandez
17. Yairo Muñoz
18. Dylan Carlson
19. Max Schrock

20. Tommy Edman
21. Edmundo Sosa

22. Johan Oviedo 
23. Evan Mendoza
24. Patrick Wisdom
25. Sam Tewes
26. Wadye Ynfante
27. Matt Pearce
28. Alvaro Seijas
29. Andy Young
30. Stefan Trosclair

Colin Garner
Colin is a catcher at Drury University who's a big fan of pitch calling, bullpenning, and Game of Thrones. Gets very frustrated with nonsense from people around him while attending games.
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