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St. Louis Cardinals: Five bold predictions for 2017

Alex Reyes will have high expectations for 2017.

We are two days into The Redbird Daily and I am really excited at the content that has been produced so far. I know seeing the quality of work produced by my teammates has caused me to up my writing game. With that said, I am going to blow your minds with five bold predictions for 2017. Well, maybe I won’t blow your minds like Zach did with his Adam Wainwright’s curveball analysis or Colin’s look at Matt Carpenter in the three spot.

When using the term “bold prediction”, these are probably things I think have a better than 50% chance of happening, but Cards fans may think I am crazy. So I make it sound like it’s a crazy prediction that won’t happen. I read a “bold prediction” on a national blog the other day that predicted the Cubs would repeat. That’s as bold as vanilla ice cream. I hope these predictions make you think.

Alex Reyes finishes second in fWAR among pitchers

I will admit that this one is inspired by Joe Schwarz of VivaElBirdosJoe tweeted out this idea and it got me thinking. I have thrown this idea out to a couple of friends and they don’t think it’s possible, thus what makes it a “bold” prediction. There are a couple of factors that could get in the way of this happening. First, Reyes will likely be on an innings limit which would limit the fWAR total. Second, Lance Lynn and Mike Leake could bounce back and find themselves in the second position. Even though his innings will be limited, the combo of high strikeouts with limited hits against will lead him to a strong fWAR.

The starting third baseman for the last game of 2017 is not currently on the roster.

Yes, I am implying the Cardinals will make a move for a third baseman this season and I think that move will happen mid-season. I think Jhonny Peralta‘s decline is real and there is no way Jedd Gyorko duplicates his 2016 season. Gyorko had a 111 wRC+ in 2016 and is projected to be league average (100) in 2017. The Cardinals have pieces to trade and if they find themselves within striking distance of the Cubs in July, they could make a deal.

Yadier Molina gets suspended for being half robot.

Midway through the season, opponents will realize that Yadi is half man, half robot and gets suspended for having a performance enhancing right arm. Satire aside, Molina continues to be an absolute horse behind the plate and the Cardinals will ride him all the way. Molina caught in 147 games in 2016 and I don’t think that number will go down much in 2017. With the emergence of Carson Kelly, the club can afford to ride him till the wheels fall off, plus his performance during the second half last year was quite impressive. By the way, you should check out this piece on Yadi from KMOV’s Brenden Schaeffer

Seung-hwan Oh loses his closing spot

Being a consistent closer in Major League Baseball is really tough to do. Oh had a really strong season last year, but a couple of rough outings could cause the club to rethink the closer position. While I think this may be the longest of long-shots, there are other options on the roster they could go to. Oh had a 2.13 FIP last year, which is most likely not sustainable and will probably be around 3 this season.

The Redbird Daily wins a Pulitzer Prize

Ok, so this one may be more far-fetched than the Bionic Yadi prediction and not Cards related at all. However, if the first two days are any indication, we are going to have something pretty special here. What is most impressive is the dedication from my writing staff. Their name isn’t behind this site and they aren’t getting paid, but they are truly invested in the outcome. I am really excited to see what develops from this little site.

So, in the end, I got a little crazy with a couple of these predictions but I hope you enjoyed reading them. Look for me to return to my regularly scheduled minor league coverage very soon.

Thanks for reading!

John Nagel
@CardinalsFarm

 

 

 

John
Father, husband, teacher who currently lives in Atlanta, Georgia. Grew up in St. Louis and has been a huge Cards fan as long as I can remember.
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  • Ben Cerutti

    You think Oh’s 2.13 FIP is unsustainable? He had a 1.81 ERA in nearly 650 innings in Japan. He had a 5.18 K:BB over there and a 0.6 HR/9 innings. His WHIP across the pond was 0.854 and hits per 9 innings was under 6. Granted, he is 34 years old this season…so age is working against him. The only way I think that his FIP declines is due to overuse or injury.

    • John

      Yes I do. Steamer has him at a 3.11 FIP for 2017 and I think it could be higher. Japan is not equal to MLB

  • Travis Branson

    I really don’t understand how we haven’t traded for Frazier yet…but I guess they are going to see about peralta and Gyrco first…but if you are right I think Frazier is it…Weaver will highlight that deal

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